AA 2812 · DFW → OKC

departs 4:26 PM CT · arrives 5:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to OKC?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at OKC that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.45 in

OKC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2812 · DFW → OKC

Odds over time

How late will it get to OKC?