AA 2812 · OKC → DFW

departs 6:19 PM CT · arrives 7:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ OKC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2812 · OKC → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?