AA 2845 · SAT → ORD

departs 2:32 PM CT · arrives 5:31 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.07 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2845 · SAT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?