Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2851 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2851 · TUL → DFW

departs 10:54 AM CT · arrives 12:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at TUL that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2851 · TUL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?