AA 2868 · QRO → DFW

took off · landed 4:49 PM CT (scheduled 1:28 PM CST → 5:09 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DFW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ 1pm departures from QRO are usually not late

Weather at each end

QRO (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2868 · QRO → DFW

Odds over time

How late did it get to DFW?