Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2878 LANDED 10:27 PM MT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 2878 · PHL → DEN

took off 8:46 PM ET · landed 10:27 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2878 · PHL → DEN

Odds over time