AA 2879 · DFW → MRY

departs 10:11 AM CT · arrives 11:58 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MRY?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

MRY (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2879 · DFW → MRY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MRY?