Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2896 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2896 · ORD → DFW

departs 6:04 AM CT · arrives 8:36 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2896 · ORD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?