Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2900 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2900 · PHL → TPA

departs 2:26 PM ET · arrives 5:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 2pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

TPA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2900 · PHL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?