Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2940 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2940 · PHL → JAX

departs 8:13 PM ET · arrives 10:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

JAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2940 · PHL → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?