AA 2942 · DFW → PHX

took off 9:45 PM CT · landed 9:44 PM MT (scheduled 9:18 PM CT → 9:55 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

PHX (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2942 · DFW → PHX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHX?