AA 2953 · DFW → ELP

took off 1:18 PM CT · landed 1:33 PM MT (scheduled 12:42 PM CT → 1:34 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ELP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

ELP (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2953 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late did it get to ELP?