Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2983 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2983 · PHL → ATL

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ATL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2983 · PHL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?