AA 299 · MXP → PHL

took off 2:45 PM CEST · landed 5:01 PM ET (scheduled 2:26 PM CEST → 5:22 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MXP

↓ Other factors

↓ 2pm departures from MXP are usually not late

Weather at each end

MXP (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 299 · MXP → PHL

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHL?