Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 300 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 300 · JFK → LAX

departs 9:30 PM ET · arrives 12:54 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 300 · JFK → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?