Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3073 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3073 · PHX → BNA

departs 8:30 AM MT · arrives 2:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3073 · PHX → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?