Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 307 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 307 · LAX → JFK

departs 8:30 AM PT · arrives 5:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,867 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 307 · LAX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?