Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3086SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 3086 · BNA → PHX
departs 7:35 AM CT · arrives 9:20 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
13%chance · ±0 pts+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.