Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 30 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 30 · LAX → JFK

departs 10:23 PM PT · arrives 7:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 30 · LAX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?