AA 3137 · ORD → PHX

departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3137 · ORD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?