AA 3138 · LAX → SFO

departs 5:31 PM PT · arrives 7:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3138 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?