Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3144 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 3144 · ORD → IAH

departs 9:07 PM CT · arrives 11:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±6 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3144 · ORD → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?