Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3147 LANDED 4:09 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3

AA 3147 · DFW → PHL

took off 12:33 PM CT · landed 4:09 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3147 · DFW → PHL

Odds over time