Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3150 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3150 · PHX → SBP

departs 9:11 PM MT · arrives 10:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBP?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SBP at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBP (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3150 · PHX → SBP

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBP?