Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3158 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3158 · PHL → DEN

departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

DEN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3158 · PHL → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?