Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3195 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 3195 · DFW → SAN

departs 6:14 PM CT · arrives 7:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±8 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.77 in

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3195 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?