Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3221 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 3221 · BNA → PHL

departs 11:31 AM CT · arrives 2:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from BNA are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.17 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3221 · BNA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?