Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3222 LANDED 5:51 PM CT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 3222 · SFO → DFW

took off 12:45 PM PT · landed 5:51 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3222 · SFO → DFW

Odds over time