Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3253 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3253 · ORD → EWR

departs 5:36 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3253 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?