Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3281 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 3281 · SFO → DFW

departs 12:26 AM PT · arrives 6:05 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.77 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3281 · SFO → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?