Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3284 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3284 · PHX → DFW

departs 10:31 AM MT · arrives 3:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3284 · PHX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?