Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3295 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 3295 · PHL → SFO

departs 9:50 PM ET · arrives 12:59 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3295 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?