Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3301 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3301 · PHL → SAT

departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 8:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,867 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3301 · PHL → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?