Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3314 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 3314 · DFW → SMF

departs 8:59 PM CT · arrives 10:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.61 in

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3314 · DFW → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?