Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 402 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 402 · PHL → DFW

departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 402 · PHL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?