Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 406 LANDED 6:16 AM CT, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 406 · DFW → SAT

took off 5:36 AM CT · landed 6:16 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from DFW are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 406 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time