Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 420 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 420 · DEN → DFW

departs 3:25 PM MT · arrives 6:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±5 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 420 · DEN → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?