AA 420 · DFW → DEN

took off 1:56 PM CT · expected to land 2:28 PM MT (scheduled 1:17 PM CT → 2:21 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
46%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.45 in

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 420 · DFW → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?