Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 435 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

Saturday, October 3

AA 435 · PHX → ORD

departs 5:38 PM MT · arrives 11:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 119h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Saturday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
77%
15 min–1 hour late
13%
Over 1 hour late
9%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

Typical odds come from past years’ weather on this date, so there are no forecast drivers yet.

Weather at each end

Too early for a weather forecast for Sat, Oct 3. These odds use the weather this date has had in past years; the forecast for PHX and ORD appears here about 3 days before departure.

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 435 · PHX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?