Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 436 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 436 · DFW → SJC

departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 1:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.61 in

SJC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 436 · DFW → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?