AA 457 · PHX → LAS

departs 11:06 AM MT · arrives 12:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 457 · PHX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?