AA 512 · ORD → LGA

took off 3:29 PM CT · landed 5:58 PM ET (scheduled 1:45 PM CT → 5:10 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 512 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?