Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 518SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 518 · SAN → ORD
departs 6:15 AM PT · arrives 12:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
9%chance · ±1 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.