AA 555 · DFW → ELP

departs 6:09 PM CT · arrives 7:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.30 in

ELP (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 555 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?