Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 559 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 559 · PHX → SAN

departs 8:20 PM MT · arrives 9:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 559 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?