AA 58 · KOA → LAX

departs 3:36 PM HT · arrives 11:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ KOA usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 58 · KOA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?