Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 635 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 635 · LAX → IND

departs 4:54 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 635 · LAX → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?