AA 774 · ORD → LGA

took off 6:28 PM CT · landed 9:04 PM ET (scheduled 6:08 PM CT → 9:37 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 774 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?