Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 804 LANDED 4:12 PM CT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 804 · PHL → BNA

took off 3:25 PM ET · landed 4:12 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

BNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 804 · PHL → BNA

Odds over time