Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 847 LANDED 11:43 PM ET, ~35 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 847 · IND → PHL

took off 10:32 PM ET · landed 11:43 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 847 · IND → PHL

Odds over time